Shanghai Securities News (reporter Chen Yukang) The 2022 Global Crude Oil Market Seminar jointly held by Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center, PetroChina International, Unipec and BOC International was held on the evening of November 3. Experts stated at the meeting that due to the pessimistic macroeconomic environment, it is expected that the growth rate of global oil demand will slow down. Overall, international oil prices will continue to fluctuate at medium to high levels.

Fu Xiao, head of global commodity market strategy (London) of BOC International, said that the pessimistic macro environment may drag down global economic growth and slow down the growth of global oil demand. But it is expected that China's economic recovery will drive an increase in global demand growth, and the growth rate in the second half of the year will be faster than in the first half.

Fu Xiao stated that OPEC+production reduction helps to increase idle capacity and enhance OPEC's ability to regulate the market. It is expected that OPEC+will maintain its production reduction scale in 2023, but it is not ruled out that OPEC+may further reduce production. As the European oil embargo against Russia begins, non European and American regions may not be able to replace the export volume to Europe, and Russian production may decline.

Fu Xiao believes that oil prices may remain highly volatile in the coming months. As the Spot market continues to be tight, it is not ruled out that the oil price may exceed $100/barrel in the short term, but the pessimistic macro sentiment may limit the increase of oil price. It is expected that the oversupply situation will slightly intensify in the first half of next year, and Brent crude oil prices may drop to $90 per barrel. However, as demand growth picks up, it is expected that Brent crude oil prices will rebound to $100 per barrel or above in the second half of the year.

Wang Pei, General Manager of the Market Strategy Department of China International Petroleum and Chemical Union Co., Ltd. (Beijing), stated that there is pressure on oil prices and support below. The oil market is facing top pressure from tightening liquidity and economic downturn, as well as bottom support from low inventory levels and OPEC+production cuts. There are also many variables such as Russia's oil export "embargo+price limit".

Wang Pei believes that oil prices are expected to remain at a medium to high level. Industry institutions still have differences regarding future oil prices, and overall, international oil prices will continue to fluctuate at medium to high levels.