On October 26, the official website of the ETH Zurich in Switzerland reported that upgrading the energy system and achieving the goal of net zero emissions can obtain net benefits, according to the comprehensive foreign media report of China Social Science Daily.   Anthony Pat, a climate policy professor at the school, said that people generally believe that transitioning to clean energy requires additional economic costs because the construction and operation costs of renewable energy systems are higher than those of fossil energy systems. The relevant studies of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Swiss Federal Energy Office also show that a strong climate policy will not be conducive to economic growth. However, researchers at the school have found that even if it is not to address climate change, there should be a shift towards clean energy, and this measure is beneficial for economic development.   Researchers have stated that the IPCC and many other organizations generally use the Integrated Assessment Model for Climate Change (IAM) when predicting the economic costs of climate protection. This model assumes that people will choose the cheapest energy supply method at any time, and the government's main approach to encouraging people to choose low-carbon energy is to continuously increase carbon taxes. The model predicts that carbon taxes need to be high enough to incentivize people to invest in expensive new energy technologies such as solar, wind, and carbon neutral aviation fuels, which may lead to a significant increase in related consumer prices, thereby suppressing economic activity and growth.   However, the reality is completely different from the predictions. The investment in solar and wind energy is much higher than predicted by international assessment reports, and the actual costs are also lower than predicted. Moreover, the climate policies driving these changes are not carbon taxes, but subsidies and regulations. Therefore, researchers hope to understand what impact the clean energy transformation will have on the economy if it continues.   The Energy Science Center of the school has studied the conversion of Switzerland's energy system and the specific implementation of net zero emission targets. Researchers simulated electricity market prices and international trade flows. The study assumes that Switzerland will continue its current energy policy and calculate the energy costs of Switzerland after complete decarbonization by 2040 based on different assumptions about whether Switzerland will integrate into the European electricity market in the future.   In the first scenario, if Switzerland continues to stay on the European power grid, market simulation results indicate that Switzerland will continue to export electricity in the summer and import electricity in the winter. However, by 2040, the use of oil and natural gas to support transportation and heating will be completely eliminated, resulting in a slight increase in net imported electricity. Therefore, even if electricity prices decrease, Switzerland's total electricity expenditure will increase by about 500 million Swiss francs. However, deducting the additional cost of carbon neutral fuels, reducing fossil fuels can save Switzerland approximately 2.5 billion Swiss francs. Compared to now, Switzerland will save approximately 2 billion Swiss francs annually by 2040.   In the second scenario, if Switzerland fails to continue to stay in the European electricity market, leading to a decrease in international transmission capacity, it is necessary to increase investment in domestic renewable energy generation to increase electricity generation. Compared to the first scenario, the cost of electricity will increase by about 40%. However, combined with the cost reduction caused by reducing the use of fossil fuels, the overall energy cost is still lower than the current level.   Previously, a study by the University of Oxford in the UK also found consistent results, stating that by 2030, the expected energy cost of a net zero emission solution will be slightly lower than that of a non transition to clean energy, and by 2040, the former will be 20% lower than the latter. Researchers have stated that neither the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich nor the University of Oxford have translated the saved energy costs into global annual GDP growth. However, in reality, under the net zero emission plan, economic growth will be faster as energy costs and prices decrease.   After adopting the optimized model framework and data, both recent research results indicate that climate protection policies can bring a win-win situation for economic development and environmental protection, which will increase momentum for accelerating decarbonization actions.

Shanghai Securities News (reporter Chen Yukang) The 2022 Global Crude Oil Market Seminar jointly held by Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center, PetroChina International, Unipec and BOC International was held on the evening of November 3. Experts stated at the meeting that due to the pessimistic macroeconomic environment, it is expected that the growth rate of global oil demand will slow down. Overall, international oil prices will continue to fluctuate at medium to high levels.   Fu Xiao, head of global commodity market strategy (London) of BOC International, said that the pessimistic macro environment may drag down global economic growth and slow down the growth of global oil demand. But it is expected that China's economic recovery will drive an increase in global demand growth, and the growth rate in the second half of the year will be faster than in the first half.   Fu Xiao stated that OPEC+production reduction helps to increase idle capacity and enhance OPEC's ability to regulate the market. It is expected that OPEC+will maintain its production reduction scale in 2023, but it is not ruled out that OPEC+may further reduce production. As the European oil embargo against Russia begins, non European and American regions may not be able to replace the export volume to Europe, and Russian production may decline.   Fu Xiao believes that oil prices may remain highly volatile in the coming months. As the Spot market continues to be tight, it is not ruled out that the oil price may exceed $100/barrel in the short term, but the pessimistic macro sentiment may limit the increase of oil price. It is expected that the oversupply situation will slightly intensify in the first half of next year, and Brent crude oil prices may drop to $90 per barrel. However, as demand growth picks up, it is expected that Brent crude oil prices will rebound to $100 per barrel or above in the second half of the year.   Wang Pei, General Manager of the Market Strategy Department of China International Petroleum and Chemical Union Co., Ltd. (Beijing), stated that there is pressure on oil prices and support below. The oil market is facing top pressure from tightening liquidity and economic downturn, as well as bottom support from low inventory levels and OPEC+production cuts. There are also many variables such as Russia's oil export "embargo+price limit".   Wang Pei believes that oil prices are expected to remain at a medium to high level. Industry institutions still have differences regarding future oil prices, and overall, international oil prices will continue to fluctuate at medium to high levels.

It is understood that Southwest Oil and Gas Field will carefully organize production, actively overcome the adverse factors such as epidemic situation, high temperature, earthquake and power restriction in the early stage, closely focus on the three main lines of "steady increase in conventional gas production, large-scale production of Shale gas, and beneficial production of Tight gas", accelerate the rapid construction and investment of new wells, strengthen the stable production and efficiency of old wells, efficiently promote the construction of key projects, maximize the production capacity of the gas area, and ensure that the maximum daily output reaches more than 117 million cubic meters.   Southwest Oil and Gas Field will inject and produce fine gas storage. According to the principle of "injecting as much as possible and producing as much as possible", it will optimize and adjust gas injection and production and maintenance plans in a timely manner, and strengthen the dynamic analysis of operation. At present, it has overfulfilled the gas injection task in the tenth gas injection period of Shōkoku-ji Gas Storage, with an accumulated gas injection of 2.15 billion m3 and a stock of 4.41 billion m3. During the winter protection period, it plans to produce 2.38 billion m3 of gas, an increase of 400 million m3 on a year-on-year basis, and has an emergency capacity of 31 million m3/day.   It is reported that Southwest Oil and Gas Field will fully support the national supply guarantee, firmly establish the "one game" concept, consider the overall situation, and follow the principle of "ensuring uploading and considering the southwest" to prepare winter gas supply plans and measures in advance, to help the group company's natural gas supply chain operate smoothly and smoothly. Ensure the supply of Sichuan and Chongqing in an orderly manner. Establish emergency response procedures in accordance with the principle of "ensuring people's livelihoods, public use, and key areas" to enhance emergency supply capacity in extreme situations.   In addition, Southwest Oil and Gas Field will focus on the inspection and maintenance of gas supply pipelines and equipment, strengthen the optimization and adjustment of key station equipment working conditions, parameter control, regular inspection and self inspection of special equipment, comprehensively carry out safety inspections and rectification of oil and gas long-distance pipelines and urban gas, strengthen production and emergency material reserves, and prepare emergency teams. At present, the equipment and facilities of Southwest Oil and Gas Field are operating well, laying a solid foundation for ensuring winter safety production.